Application of recurrent neural network in prognosis of peritoneal dialysis

  • Wen TANG ,
  • Jun-yi GAO ,
  • Xin-yu MA ,
  • Chao-he ZHANG ,
  • Lian-tao MA ,
  • Ya-sha WANG
Expand

Received date: 2019-03-18

  Online published: 2019-06-26

Supported by

Supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities: Peking University Medicine Seed Fund for Interdisciplinary Research (BMU20160584)

Abstract

Objective: Deep learning models, including recurrent neural network (RNN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), were used to construct the clinical prognostic prediction models for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients based on routine clinical data. The performance of the RNN and GRU were compared with logistic regression (LR), which is commonly used in medical researches. The possible underlining clinical implications based on the result from the GRU model were also investigated.Methods: We used the clinical data from the PD center of Peking University Third Hospital as the data source. Both the baseline data at the beginning of dialysis, and the follow-up and prognostic data of the patients were used by the RNN and GRU prediction models. The hyper-parameters were tuned based on the 10-fold cross-validation. The risk prediction performance of each model was evaluated via area under the receiver ope-ration characteristic curve (AUROC), recall rate and F1-score on the testset. Results: A total of 656 patients with the 261 occurrences of death were included in the experiment. The total number of all diagnostic records were 13 091. The results on the testset showed that the AUROC of the LR model, RNN mo-del, and GRU model was 0.701 4, 0.786 0, and 0.814 7, respectively. The predictive performances of the GRU and RNN models were significantly better than that of the LR model. The performances of the GRU and RNN models assessed by recall rate and F1-score were also significantly better than that of the LR model, in which the GRU model reached the best performance. In addition, the recall rates were different among different causes of death or by different prediction time windows.Conclusion: The recurrent neural network model, especially the GRU model, is more effective in predicting PD patients’ prognosis as compared with the LR model. This new model may be helpful for clinicians to provide timely intervention, thus improving the quality of care of PD.

Cite this article

Wen TANG , Jun-yi GAO , Xin-yu MA , Chao-he ZHANG , Lian-tao MA , Ya-sha WANG . Application of recurrent neural network in prognosis of peritoneal dialysis[J]. Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences), 2019 , 51(3) : 602 -608 . DOI: 10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2019.03.034

References

[1] Li KT, Chow KM , Van de Luijtgaarden MW, et al. Changes in the worldwide epidemiology of peritoneal dialysis[J]. Nat Rev Nephrol, 2017,13(2):90-103.
[2] Lee C, Luo Z, Ngiam KY , et al. Big healthcare data analytics: Challenges and applications[M] //Handbook of large-scale distributed computing in smart healthcare. German: Springer, 2017: 11-41.
[3] Schalkoff RJ . Artificial neural networks[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997.
[4] Ma F, Chitta R, Zhou J, et al. Dipole: diagnosis prediction in healthcare via attention-based bidirectional recurrent neural networks [C]. Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, 2017: 1903-1911.
[5] Khitan Z, Shapiro AP, Shah PT , et al. Predicting adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease using machine learning methods: data from the modification of diet in renal disease[J]. Marshall J Med, 2017,3(4):67.
[6] Korchiyne R, Farssi SM, Sbihi A , et al. A combined method of fractal and GLCM features for MRI and CT scan images classification[J]. Signal & Image Processing: An International Journal, 2014,5(4):85.
[7] Lipton ZC, Berkowitz J , Elkan C. A critical review of recurrent neural networks for sequence learning [J/OL]. ( 2015 -10-17)[2019-01-10]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1506.00019.pdf.
[8] Chung J, Gulcehre C, Cho KH , et al. Empirical evaluation of gated recurrent neural networks on sequence modeling [J/OL]. ( 2014 -12-11)[2019-01-10]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1412.3555.pdf.
Outlines

/