Abstract:

Objective: To simulate the different prevalence of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Beijing as the spreading and the outbreak city and analyze the response capacity of its medical resources of fever clinics, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the spatial layout in Beijing under severe epidemics. Methods: The study obtained epidemiological indicators for COVID-19, factors about medical resources and population movement as parameters for the SEIR model and utilized the model to predict the maximum number of infections on a single day at different control levels in Beijing, simulated as an epidemic spreading city and an epidemic outbreak city respectively. The modified two-step floating catchment area method under ArcGIS 10.6 environment was used to analyze spatial accessibility to fever clinics services for the patients in Beijing. Results: According to the results of the SEIR model, the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an epidemic spreading city at low, medium and high levels of prevention and control were 8 514, 183, and 68 cases, the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an outbreak city was 22 803, 10 868 and 3 725 cases, respectively. The following result showed that Beijing was simulated as an epidemic spreading city: among the 585 communities in Beijing, under the low level of prevention and control, there were 17 communities (2.91%) with excellent accessibility to fever clinics, and that of 41 communities (7.01%) with fever clinics was good. Spatial accessibility of fever clinics in 56 communities (9.57%) was ranked average, and 62 communities’ (10.60%) accessibility was fair and 409 communities (69.91%) had poor accessibility; at the medium level of prevention and control, only the west region of Fangshan District and Mentougou District, the north region of Yanqing District, Huairou District and Miyun District had poor accessibility; under the high level of prevention and control, 559 communities’ (95.56%) had excellent accessibility. The accessibility in 24 communities (4.10%) was good and in 2 communities (0.34%) was average. In brief, the existing fever clinics could meet the common demand. Beijing was simulated as an outbreak city: under the low level of prevention and control, only 1 community (0.17%) had excellent accessibility to fever clinics, and 5 communities (0.86%) had good accessibility. The accessibility of fever clinics in 10 communities (1.71%) was average and in 12 communities (2.05%) was fair. The accessibility of fever clinics in 557 communities (95.21%), nearly all areas of Beijing, was poor; under the middle and high level of prevention and control, the accessibility of ecological conservation areas was also relatively poor. Conclusion: The distribution of fever clinic resources in Beijing is uneven. When Beijing is simulated as an epidemic spreading city: under the high level of prevention and control, the number of fever clinics can be appropriately reduced to avoid cross-infection; at the medium level of prevention and control, the fever clinics can basically meet the needs of patients with fever in Beijing, but the accessibility of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas is insufficient, and priority should be given to the construction of fever clinics in public hospitals above the second level in the ecological conservation areas. When the level of prevention and control is low, the accessibility of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas is poor. Priority should be given to the construction of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas, and temporary fever sentinels can be established to relieve the pressure of fever clinics. When Beijing is simulated as an outbreak city and has low prevention and control, due to a large number of infections, it is necessary to upgrade the prevention and control level to reduce the flow of people to curb the development of the epidemic.

Key words: Fever clinics, Spatial accessibility, Two-step floating catchment area method, SEIR model