Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) >
Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study
Received date: 2024-02-17
Online published: 2024-06-12
Supported by
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82373662);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81973132);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFC2003503)
Objective: To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. Methods: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihypertensive initiation strategies, including: Strategy 1, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mmHg (2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases); Strategy 2, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥130 mmHg; Strategy 3, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥140 mmHg, or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases (2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure in adults); Strategy 4, initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥160 mmHg, or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases (2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults: Diagnosis and management). The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts. Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years (cycles), with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. After ten cycles of simulation, the numbers of quality-adjusted life years (QALY), cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy, and the numbers needed to treat (NNT) for each cardiovascular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. Results: A total of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included. Compared with strategy 1, the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666 (95% UI: 334-975), while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10 (95% UI: 7-20). In contrast to strategy 1, the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388 (95% UI: 194-569), and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6 (95% UI: 4-12), suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency. Compared to strategy 1, although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193 (95% UI: 98-281) in strategy 4, the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18 (95% UI: 13-37) with better efficiency. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China, the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold. The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.
Tianjing ZHOU , Qiuping LIU , Minglu ZHANG , Xiaofei LIU , Jiali KANG , Peng SHEN , Hongbo LIN , Xun TANG , Pei GAO . Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study[J]. Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences), 2024 , 56(3) : 441 -447 . DOI: 10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2024.03.010
| 1 | Mensah GA , Fuster V , Murray CJL , et al. Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risks, 1990—2022[J]. J Am Coll Cardiol, 2023, 82 (25): 2350- 2473. |
| 2 | 胡大一, 韩雅玲, 宁光, 等. 中国心血管病一级预防指南[J]. 中华心血管病杂志, 2020, 48 (12): 1000- 1038. |
| 3 | Whelton PK , Carey RM , Aronow WS , et al. 2017 ACC/AHA/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/AGS/APhA/ASH/ASPC/NMA/PCNA guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure in adults: Executive summary: A report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association task force on clinical practice guidelines[J]. Hypertension, 2018, 71 (6): 1269- 1324. |
| 4 | Boffa RJ , Constanti M , Floyd CN , et al. Hypertension in adults: Summary of updated NICE guidance[J]. BMJ, 2019, 367, l5310. |
| 5 | Lu Y , Wang P , Zhou T , et al. Comparison of prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of cardiovascular risk factors in China and the United States[J]. J Am Heart Assoc, 2018, 7 (3): e007462. |
| 6 | Lin H , Tang X , Shen P , et al. Using big data to improve cardiovascular care and outcomes in China: A protocol for the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study[J]. BMJ Open, 2018, 8 (2): e019698. |
| 7 | WHO CVD Risk Chart Working Group . World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: Revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions[J]. Lancet Glob Health, 2019, 7 (10): e1332- e1345. |
| 8 | Wang JG , Staessen JA , Franklin SS , et al. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure lowering as determinants of cardiovascular outcome[J]. Hypertension, 2005, 45 (5): 907- 913. |
| 9 | Herrett E , Gadd S , Jackson R , et al. Eligibility and subsequent burden of cardiovascular disease of four strategies for blood pressure-lowering treatment: A retrospective cohort study[J]. Lancet, 2019, 394 (10199): 663- 671. |
| 10 | 巩超, 刘秋萍, 王佳敏, 等. 社区人群他汀干预策略预防心血管病效果的马尔可夫模型评价[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 2022, 54 (3): 443- 449. |
| 11 | Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration . Pharmacological blood pressure lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease across different levels of blood pressure: An individual participant-level data meta-analysis[J]. Lancet, 2021, 397 (10285): 1625- 1636. |
| 12 | Wang M , Moran AE , Liu J , et al. Cost-effectiveness of optimal use of acute myocardial infarction treatments and impact on coronary heart disease mortality in China[J]. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, 2014, 7 (1): 78- 85. |
| 13 | The China PEACE Collaborative Group . Association of age and blood pressure among 3.3 million adults: Insights from China PEACE million persons project[J]. J Hypertens, 2021, 39 (6): 1143- 1154. |
| 14 | Kim S , Chang Y , Kang J , et al. Relationship of the blood pressure categories, as defined by the ACC/AHA 2017 blood pressure guidelines, and the risk of development of cardiovascular disease in low-risk young adults: Insights from a retrospective cohort of young adults[J]. J Am Heart Assoc, 2019, 8 (11): e011946. |
| 15 | Qi Y , Han X , Zhao D , et al. Long-term cardiovascular risk associated with stage 1 hypertension defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA hypertension guideline[J]. J Am Coll Cardiol, 2018, 72 (11): 1201- 1210. |
| 16 | Wang Z , Hao G , Wang X , et al. Clinical outcomes and economic impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines on hypertension in China[J]. J Clin Hypertens, 2019, 21 (8): 1212- 1220. |
| 17 | Chen T , Yu D , Cornelius V , et al. Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of drug therapy for prehypertension[J]. Int J Cardiol, 2017, 240, 403- 408. |
| 18 | Zhang M , Shi Y , Zhou B , et al. Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in China, 2004-18: Findings from six rounds of a national survey[J]. BMJ, 2023, 380, e071952. |
| 19 | Li J , Zhao D , Cai J , et al. Cost-effectiveness of treatment in adults with blood pressure of 130-139/80-89 mmHg and high cardiovascular risk in China: A modelling study[J]. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2024, 42, 100962. |
| 20 | Karmali KN , Lloyd-Jones DM , van der Leeuw J , et al. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data[J]. PLoS Med, 2018, 15 (3): e1002538. |
| 21 | Zhou M , Wang H , Zeng X , et al. Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990—2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017[J]. Lancet, 2019, 394 (10204): 1145- 1158. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |