目的：验证门诊服务和住院服务的替代关系，为门诊服务保障政策的设计提供参考依据。方法：采集中国东部某地区13个区县2007年至2013年新型农村合作医疗年度报表，利用“固定效应”模型，分析以区县为单位门诊次数、门诊费用和门诊报销金额对住院服务次数、住院费用和住院报销金额的影响。结果：门诊次数每增加1次，可以节约20元的住院费用；门诊报销金额每增加1万元，住院费用下降0.97万元；门诊费用每增加1万元，住院报销金额降低0.30万元；门诊服务并不增加住院次数。门诊对住院的影响，主要集中在区县级医疗机构，对市及以上更高级医疗机构住院影响并不显著。结论：门诊服务对住院服务有一定的替代作用。疾病保障基金在分配门诊和住院的报销费用时，应当充分考虑门诊服务对住院服务的替代作用，适当地向门诊服务倾斜。

Objective： To study the substitution effect of outpatient services on inpatient services and provide suggestions on designing outpatient policies. Methods: The data were from 13 districts/counties in one area of eastern China from 2007 to 2013 for the new cooperative medical scheme. This study employed a fixed effects model to analyze the impacts of outpatient visit times, expenditure amounts and reimbursements on inpatient services.Results: One outpatient visit reduced the total amount of inpatient services by 20 Yuan. An increase of 10 000 Yuan outpatient reimbursements saved 9 700 Yuan inpatient expenses. An increase of 10 000 Yuan outpatient expenses led to a decrease of 3 000 Yuan inpatient reimbursements. The outpatient services did not increase the inpatient hospitalization times significantly. In particular, the effects of the outpatient services were mainly on the inpatient services at the district/county levels, and no significant impacts on the outpatient services at the city levels. Conclusion: There is a substitution effect of outpatient services on inpatient services. The health insurance departments should take this substitution effect into account and shift more funds on outpatient series, when they design outpatient and inpatient reimbursement policies.