1990—2010年中国女性早婚和生育的地区不平等性

doi:10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2020.03.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的分析1990—2010年中国15~19岁女性青少年结婚和生育的地区不平等性。方法利用1990—2010年三次全国人口普查汇总数据,计算中国15~19岁女性青少年的已婚率和生育率。将各省份人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)作为社会经济发展水平指标,计算女性青少年已婚率和生育率的不平等绝对指数(slope index of inequality,SII)和集中指数(concentration index,CI),并建立线性回归模型衡量已婚率和生育率与人均GDP的关联。结果 1990—2000年,全国15~19岁女性的已婚率从4.7%下降至1.2%,但在2010年反弹至2.1%。生育率从1990年的22.0/1 000人下降至2000年的6.0/1 000人,2010年进一步下降为5.9/1 000人。1990年,15~19岁女性青少年已婚率和生育率地区层面的社会经济不平等性不具有统计学意义(SII和CI均P>0.05)。SII分析显示,2000和2010年,人均GDP最低人群的已婚率比最高人群分别高2.4%(95%CI:0.4~4.4)和2.3%(95%CI:0.3~4.2)。与此同时, 2000年和2010年人均GDP最低人群的生育率比最高人群分别高12.9/1 000人(95%CI:5.4~20.5)和9.3/1 000人(95%CI:4.6~14.0)。已婚的CI值在2000年和2010年分别为-0.32(P=0.02)和-0.17(P=0.03), 生育的CI值在2000年和2010年分别为-0.37(P<0.01)和-0.26(P<0.01)。2000年,人均GDP上升100%,已婚率平均下降1.4%(95%CI:0.1~2.7),生育率平均下降7.9/1 000人(95%CI:2.9~12.8)。2010年,人均GDP上升100%,已婚率平均下降1.5%(95%CI:0.1~2.9),生育率平均下降6.7/1 000人(95%CI:3.2~10.1)。结论 2000年和2010年存在女性青少年早婚早育地区层面的社会经济不平等性,生活在经济发展水平较低的女性青少年更容易早婚早育;减少收入不公平、增加对贫困地区的教育投资可能是改善早婚早育地区不平等的有效措施。

关键词: 早婚, 青少年生育, 不平等, 地区经济发展

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility with respect to local economic development among Chinese females aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2010.Methods: Aggregated data were extracted from the Chinese National Census from 1990 to 2010. We calculated the ever-married rate and fertility rate of female adolescents aged 15-19 years. Using gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as an indicator for socio-economic status of a province, we calculated the slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index (CI) to analyze the subnational inequalities of early marriage and adolescent fertility. Weighted linear regression models were also established to assess the associations between GDP per capita and the ever-married rate/fertility rate.Results: The ever-married rate for Chinese female adolescents aged 15-19 years decreased from 4.7% in 1990 to 1.2% in 2000, and rebounded to 2.1% in 2010. From 1990 to 2000, the fertility rate decreased from 22.0 per 1 000 to 6.0 per 1 000, and further decreased to 5.9 per 1 000 in 2010. In 1990, the socio-economic inequalities of the ever-married rate and fertility rate for female adolescents aged 15-19 years were not statistically significant (P for SII or CI>0.05). The values of SII revealed that, in 2000 and 2010, female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had an ever-married rate 2.4% (95%CI: 0.4-4.4) and 2.3% (95%CI: 0.3-4.2) higher than those with the highest GDP per capita, respectively. In the meantime, in 2000 and 2010, female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had a fertility rate 12.9 per 1 000 (95%CI: 5.4-20.5) and 9.3 per 1 000 (95%CI: 4.6-14.0) higher than those with the highest, respectively. In 2000 and 2010, the CIs for marriage were -0.32 (P=0.02) and -0.17 (P=0.03), respectively, and the CIs for childbirth were -0.37 (P<0.01) and -0.26 (P<0.01), respectively. In 2000, the ever-married rate and the fertility rate were estimated to increase by 1.4% (95%CI: 0.1-2.7) and 7.9 per 1 000 (95%CI: 2.9-12.8) with 100% increase in GDP per capita, respectively; in 2010, the numbers were 1.5% (95%CI: 0.1-2.9) and 6.7 per 1 000 (95%CI: 3.2-10.1), respectively.Conclusion: Subnational socio-economic inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility existed in 2000 and 2010. Female adolescents residing in less-developed areas were more likely to engage in early marriage and childbirth. Reducing income inequality and increasing education investment for poverty-stricken areas seem to be effective measures to reduce this inequality.

Key words: Early marriage, Adolescent fertility, Inequality, Subnational economic development

中图分类号:

R169.1

罗冬梅,闫晓晋,胡佩瑾,张京舒,宋逸,马军. 1990—2010年中国女性早婚和生育的地区不平等性[J]. 北京大学学报（医学版）, 2020, 52(3): 479-485.

Dong-mei LUO,Xiao-jin YAN,Pei-jin HU,Jing-shu ZHANG,Yi SONG,Jun MA. Subnational inequalities of early marriage and fertility among Chinese females from 1990 to 2010[J]. Journal of Peking University (Health Sciences), 2020, 52(3): 479-485.

图/表 4

表1

1990—2010年各省份15~19岁女性青少年婚姻和生育状况的样本量"

Province	1990		2000		2010
Province	Marriage	Childbirth	Marriage	Childbirth	Marriage	Childbirth
Beijing	371 171	418 625	56 073	58 753	46 295	54 720
Tianjin	319 791	343 387	40 897	40 872	33 629	38 326
Hebei	2 693 731	2 907 918	315 002	308 904	247 048	265 951
Shanxi	1 483 226	1 519 173	124 167	121 065	159 640	161 499
Inner Mongolia	1 200 786	1 216 356	95 561	93 902	73 553	75 906
Liaoning	1 738 583	1 838 419	136 254	138 264	116 486	122 820
Jilin	1 246 136	1 330 586	90 647	89 767	75 599	81 577
Heilongjiang	1 946 956	1 978 893	125 823	124 764	97 709	104 446
Shanghai	344 530	380 268	61 100	62 675	52 686	61 454
Jiangsu	2 853 893	3 151 132	236 732	235 252	252 105	273 913
Zhejiang	1 869 963	1 984 223	158 967	159 812	169 565	179 519
Anhui	3 136 569	3 331 470	186 674	180 933	202 180	206 905
Fujian	1 613 736	1 646 617	147 704	143 054	121 840	131 464
Jiangxi	2 171 052	279 439	106 848	99 410	146 352	154 131
Shandong	4 134 972	4 405 858	356 913	350 144	233 869	257 038
Henan	4 572 670	4 732 014	340 810	334 200	333 702	359 055
Hubei	2 631 616	2 810 951	181 901	173 085	186 398	197 852
Hunan	3 130 405	3 246 147	204 373	195 046	168 315	182 827
Guangdong	3 218 213	3 416 531	441 954	464 301	128 267	462 923
Guangxi	2 114 553	2 093 109	181 908	171 526	142 064	142 331
Hainan	315 462	327 599	33 421	33 263	35 396	36 182
Chongqing	NA	NA	67 332	63 917	90 949	89 807
Sichuan	6 806 378	6 893 796	206 340	198 409	290 965	291 021
Guizhou	1 958 504	1 882 092	117 832	113 548	124 923	120 412
Yunnan	2 126 355	2 106 799	156 091	153 951	163 239	164 866
Tibet	106 878	109 314	12 283	12 225	10 772	10 866
Shaanxi	1 665 154	308 120	132 943	126 899	144 349	152 149
Gansu	1 307 575	1 407 251	90 869	87 808	120 533	121 375
Qinghai	273 954	280 743	18 715	18 926	22 607	22 766
Ningxia	272 072	276 497	24 072	24 072	25 130	25 475
Xinjiang	882 948	931 681	86 475	85 883	81 456	84 811
Total	58 507 832	57 555 008	4 536 681	4 464 625	4 097 621	4 634 387

表1

表2

图1

表3

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Items	Overall	Guizhou^a	Shanghai^a	Rate difference	Rate ratio	SII
Items	Overall	Guizhou^a	Shanghai^a	Rate difference	Rate ratio	-SII (95%CI)	P
Ever-married rate
1990	4.7	5.6	0.8	4.9	7.4	0.8(-2.1, 3.6)	0.581
2000	1.2	5.0	0.7	4.2	6.7	2.4(0.4, 4.4)	0.018
2010	2.1	4.8	3.1	1.7	1.5	2.3(0.3, 4.2)	0.023
Fertility rate
1990	22.0	24.5	4.0	20.5	6.1	3.1(-7.7, 13.9)	0.560
2000	6.0	26.8	1.6	25.2	16.9	12.9(5.4, 20.5)	0.002
2010	5.9	19.0	4.1	15.0	4.7	9.3(4.6, 14.0)	<0.001

Item	n	logGDP		logGDP×year
Item	n	β(95%CI)^a	P	logGDP×year
Ever-married rate
1990	30	-1.1(-3.5, 1.3)	0.345	Reference
2000	31	-1.4(-2.7, -0.1)	0.031	P=0.876
2010	31	-1.5(-2.9, -0.1)	0.040	P=0.877
Fertility rate
1990	30	-5.2(-14.0, 3.7)	0.241	Reference
2000	31	-7.9(-12.8, -2.9)	0.003	P=0.708
2010	31	-6.7(-10.1, -3.2)	<0.001	P=0.852