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北京大学学报（医学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (5): 820-827. doi: 10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2024.05.011

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同表观温度水平下大气细颗粒物暴露对人群非意外死亡的影响

王裕新1, 曹茹1, 黄婧1, Pitakchon Ponsawansong2, Benjawan Tawatsupa3, 潘小川1, Tippawan Prapamontol2, 李国星1,*()   

  1. 1. 北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系，北京 100191
    2. Environment and Health Research Unit, Research Institute for Health Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
    3. Health Impact Assessment Division, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok 11000, Thailand
  • 收稿日期:2021-05-18 出版日期:2024-10-18 发布日期:2024-10-16
  • 通讯作者: 李国星 E-mail:liguoxing@bjmu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41761144056);泰国自然科学基金和研究基金会国际合作与交流项目(RDG6030019)

Impact of fine particulate matter exposure on non-accidental mortality under different apparent temperature levels

Yuxin WANG1, Ru CAO1, Jing HUANG1, Ponsawansong Pitakchon2, Tawatsupa Benjawan3, Xiaochuan PAN1, Prapamontol Tippawan2, Guoxing LI1,*()   

  1. 1. Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China
    2. Environment and Health Research Unit, Research Institute for Health Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
    3. Health Impact Assessment Division, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok 11000, Thailand
  • Received:2021-05-18 Online:2024-10-18 Published:2024-10-16
  • Contact: Guoxing LI E-mail:liguoxing@bjmu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    the International (Regional) Cooperation and Exchange Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41761144056);the Major International Joint Research Project of National Research Council of Thailand/Thailand Research Fund(RDG6030019)

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摘要：

目的: 评估空气动力学直径≤2.5 μm的大气细颗粒物(particulate matter, PM2.5)暴露在不同表观温度水平下对人群非意外死亡的影响，进一步探究表观温度的效应修饰作用。方法: 采用时间序列研究，选取中国的天津和宁波两个城市、泰国的曼谷和清迈两个城市作为研究地点，以表观温度作为温度的暴露指标，通过对阈值温度的定量估计，根据阈值温度对应的污染物水平进行分层，采用广义泊松(Poisson)相加模型来评估不同温度水平下PM2.5暴露与人群非意外死亡之间的关联。结果: 天津、宁波、曼谷和清迈4个亚洲城市在研究期间PM2.5的平均浓度分别为(73.6±35.6)、(48.0±32.1)、(33.5±28.4)和(32.6±28.6) μg/m3，日均非意外死亡人数分别为148、57、28和8人。广义泊松相加模型分析显示，天津市滞后0 d的PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3，非意外死亡人数增加0.43%(95%CI：0.33%~0.54%)；宁波市滞后2 d的PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3，非意外死亡人数增加0.27%(95%CI：0.08%~0.46%)。天津市在高温水平下，空气污染的死亡影响更大，而宁波和曼谷在低温时PM2.5的死亡效应更明显。不同温度水平共污染物模型中，PM2.5的死亡效应相对稳健。结论: 大气细颗粒物暴露对人群非意外死亡有不利影响，应进一步注意控制空气污染，表观温度可能对PM2.5的死亡影响产生效应修饰作用，且在不同温度带的效应有所差异，应根据地区差异建立保护性政策，同时在探究空气污染和气候变化的相互影响方面应予更多关注。

关键词: PM2.5, 表观温度, 死亡率, 效应修饰

Abstract:

Objective: To assess the impact of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) on non-accidental mortality under different apparent temperature levels and to further explore the modification effect of apparent temperature. Methods: This study used time-series design. Tianjin and Ningbo from China, Bangkok and Chiang Mai from Thailand were selected as the research sites, and the apparent temperature was applied as the exposure index. Through the quantitative estimation of the threshold temperature, the corresponding pollutant concentration was divided into high and low levels, and the generalized Poisson additive model was used to evaluate the association between PM2.5 exposure and non-accidental death of residents at different temperature levels. Results: The ave-rage concentrations of PM2.5 in Tianjin, Ningbo, Bangkok, and Chiang Mai during the study period were (73.6±35.6), (48.0±32.1), (33.5±28.4) and (32.6±28.6) μg/m3, respectively; the average daily non-accidental death counts were 148, 57, 28, and 8. The analysis of the generalized Poisson additive model showed that the daily non-accidental death counts increased by 0.43% (95%CI: 0.33%-0.54%) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 in lag 0 day in Tianjin of China; 0.27% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.46%) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 in lag 2 days in Ningbo of China. The effect was magnified in high temperature levels in Tianjin and in low temperatures in Ningbo and Bangkok. The mortality effect of PM2.5 in various temperature levels stayed still in co-pollutant regression models. Conclusion: Exposure to fine particulate matter had an adverse effect on non-accidental mortality, which reminded us to give further attention to the pollution control. The findings also indicated that apparent temperature might modify mortality effects of PM2.5 and the modification effect varied in different regions. Protective policies due to regional differences should be made and more scientific and social attention on mutual effect of air pollution and climate change needs to be appealed.

Key words: PM2.5, Apparent temperature, Mortality, Effect modification

中图分类号: 

  • R122.26

图1

四个城市的位置分布示意图"

表1

四个城市人群死亡、空气污染和气象资料的一般情况"

Variable Mean SD Minimum P 25 Median P 75 Maximum
Tianjin, China
  PM2.5/(μg/m3) 73.6 35.6 9.0 49.5 67.6 90.0 291.5
  NO2/(μg/m3) 43.2 16.2 12.8 32.0 40.0 51.2 142.4
  SO2/(μg/m3) 57.1 44.5 8.0 26.0 42.0 75.5 339.0
  AT/℃ 13.1 11.3 -14.1 2.1 14.4 23.8 32.1
  RH/% 58.1 18.3 15.0 44.0 60.0 72.0 97.0
  Mortality, n 148 43 13 122 152 176 340
Ningbo, China
  PM2.5/(μg/m3) 48.0 32.1 5.9 27.4 40.3 59.3 421.7
  NO2/(μg/m3) 42.5 18.4 7.6 29.2 39.7 53.8 121.8
  SO2/(μg/m3) 19.7 12.3 5.4 11.8 15.7 23.8 109.5
  AT/℃ 18.1 11.2 -3.3 7.7 18.7 27.6 38.5
  RH/% 74.2 12.3 28.0 66.0 75.0 84.0 97.0
  Mortality, n 93 18 52 80 90 104 166
Bangkok, Thailand
  PM2.5/(μg/m3) 33.5 28.4 5.1 15.6 23.4 41.7 266.2
  NO2/(μg/m3) 26.4 12.6 3.2 17.2 21.9 34.2 79.8
  SO2/(μg/m3) 3.2 1.8 0 2.1 2.7 3.6 14.9
  AT/℃ 29.1 1.8 18.4 28.1 29.3 30.3 33.4
  RH/% 65.6 9.0 37.3 60.3 66.1 71.4 94.9
  Mortality, n 28 5 7 24 28 33 46
Chiang Mai, Thailand
  PM2.5/(μg/m3) 32.6 28.6 4.8 14.9 22.6 41.5 266.2
  NO2/(μg/m3) 16.9 8.4 0 11.1 14.2 21.7 50.7
  SO2/(μg/m3) 1.4 0.9 0 1.0 1.1 1.6 8.4
  AT/℃ 27.1 3.0 11.5 25.5 27.4 28.9 35.1
  RH/% 69.4 11.2 39.8 61.9 70.9 77.6 93.6
  Mortality, n 8 2 0 6 8 10 20

表2

不同温度水平PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3对非意外死亡影响的超额危险度"

Items Threshold Excess risk (95%CI)/% P value of Q statistics
Tianjin, China
  Total 0.43 (0.33, 0.54) Reference
  Low 26.4 0.32 (0.22, 0.43) 0.47
  High 1.23 (1.01, 1.46) < ·0.001
Ningbo, China
  Total 0.27 (0.08, 0.46) Reference
  Low 26.5 0.28 (0.09, 0.47) 0.99
  High 0.18 (-0.40, 0.76) 0.75
Bangkok, Thailand
  Total 0.50 (-0.01, 1.02) Reference
  Low 26.6 2.70 (0.68, 4.77) 0.03
  High 0.49 (-0.03, 1.00) 1.00
Chiang Mai, Thailand
  Total 0.92 (-0.05, 1.91) Reference
  Low 29.1 0.89 (-0.10, 1.88) 1.00
  High 1.48 (-0.40, 3.40) 0.59
Overall
  Total 0.40 (0.20, 0.60) Reference
  Low 0.70 (-0.08, 1.50) 0.98
  High 0.70 (0.11, 1.30) 0.98

表3

共污染物模型中不同温度水平PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3对非意外死亡影响的超额危险度"

City, country Pollutant Temperature Excess risk/% (95%CI) P value of Q statistics
Tianjin, China PM2.5+NO2 Total 0.30 (0.10, 0.50) Reference
Low 0.24 (0.12, 0.36) 0.79
High 1.22 (-1.09, 3.58) 0.48
PM2.5+SO2 Total 0.30 (-0.38, 0.99) Reference
Low 0.26 (0.14, 0.38) 0.92
High 1.19 (-1.08, 3.51) 0.46
Ningbo, China PM2.5+NO2 Total 0.28 (0.09, 0.47) Reference
Low 0.29 (0.09, 0.48) 0.96
High 0.21 (-0.37, 0.79) 0.82
PM2.5+SO2 Total 0.29 (0.10, 0.48) Reference
Low 0.29 (0.10, 0.48) 0.97
High 0.24 (-0.33, 0.82) 0.88
Bangkok, Thailand PM2.5+NO2 Total 0.21 (-0.41, 0.82) Reference
Low 2.18 (0.26, 4.14) 0.05
High 0.17 (-0.44, 0.79) 0.94
PM2.5+SO2 Total 0.50 (-0.02, 1.03) Reference
Low 2.43 (0.38, 4.52) 0.07
High 0.18 (-0.43, 0.80) 0.43
Chiang Mai, Thailand PM2.5+NO2 Total 0.44 (-0.60, 1.50) Reference
Low 0.69 (-0.35, 1.75) 0.74
High 0.59 (-1.95, 3.20) 0.91
PM2.5+SO2 Total 0.55 (-0.45, 1.56) Reference
Low 0.86 (-0.13, 1.86) 0.66
High 1.45 (-0.44, 3.38) 0.41
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ISSN 1671-167X
CN 11-4691/R
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