1990—2019年中国5~24岁人群伤害死亡率分析

doi:10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2022.03.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 分析1990—2019年中国5~24岁人群伤害死亡率情况，为预防伤害相关政策的制定提供理论依据。方法: 使用《2019全球疾病负担》报告提供的中国5~24岁人群伤害死亡数据，描述伤害死亡率在1990—2019年间的变化情况，并使用年龄-时期-队列模型分析道路交通伤害、溺水、自伤等原因导致死亡率变化的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果: 1990—2019年，中国5~24岁人群总体伤害死亡率从46.22[95%不确定性区间(uncertainty interval, UI)：40.88~52.12]/10万下降至20.36(95%UI：17.58~23.38)/10万，各亚组变化趋势与总体基本一致。溺水由该人群首位伤害死因下降为第二位，道路交通伤害则成为首位伤害死因，自伤处于伤害死因第三位。各亚组前三位死因与总体基本一致，但排序有所不同。年龄-时期-队列分析结果表明，道路交通伤害、溺水和自伤的死亡率均随着时期的推移和队列年份的增加而下降，其中道路交通伤害死亡风险随年龄增加先降低后升高，溺水死亡风险随年龄增加而降低，自伤死亡风险随年龄增加而升高。结论: 中国5~24岁人群伤害死亡情况在过去30年中整体得到改善，但具体原因导致的伤害死亡在不同亚组中表现有所差异。未来应针对不同亚组伤害的死亡特点，提出针对性政策和干预手段，减少儿童青少年伤害死亡率。

关键词: 儿童, 青少年, 伤害, 死亡率

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the mortality of injuries among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of policies related to injury prevention. Methods: The mortality data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, and the change in mortality between 1990 and 2019 was described. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to determine the age effect, period effect and cohort effect for road injuries, drowning and self-harm. Results: Injury mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years decreased from 46.22 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.88-52.12] per 100 000 to 20.36 (95%UI: 17.58-23.38) per 100 000 between 1990 and 2019. Sub-group analysis revealed a pattern that was basically consistent with the overall trend. From 1990 to 2019, drowning declined from the first leading cause of injury death among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China to the second while road injuries became the one which caused the most death among them, and self-harm was the third leading cause of injury death. The top three causes of injury death in each subgroup were basically the same as the overall, but the order was different in each subgroup. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the death risk of road injuries, drowning, and self-harm all decreased with period and cohort. Aside from that, the death risk of road injuries showed a U-shape trend, which decreased at first but increased soon afterwards, with the increase of age, while the death risk of drowning decreased with age and the death risk of self-harm increased with age. Conclusion: In China, the injuries mortality among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years has decreased over the last three decades. However, specific cause-related injury deaths, manifested differently in different sub-groups. Targeted policies and intervention should be proposed to reduce the mortality of children and adolescents in accordance with the characteristics of injuries death in different genders and age groups.

Key words: Child, Adolescent, Injuries, Mortality

中图分类号:

R179

刘云飞,党佳佳,钟盼亮,马宁,师嫡,宋逸. 1990—2019年中国5~24岁人群伤害死亡率分析[J]. 北京大学学报（医学版）, 2022, 54(3): 498-504.

Yun-fei LIU,Jia-jia DANG,Pan-liang ZHONG,Ning MA,Di SHI,Yi SONG. Injury mortality among Chinese aged 5 to 24 years from 1990 to 2019[J]. Journal of Peking University (Health Sciences), 2022, 54(3): 498-504.

图/表 4

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