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北京大学学报（医学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (3): 543-550. doi: 10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2026.03.014

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

生物学年龄在社区人群队列中预测心血管病风险的应用

陆梦溪1, 王炳翰1, 康佳丽1, 刘秋萍1, 周逸帆1, 孙烨祥2, 沈鹏2, 林鸿波2, 唐迅1,3,4,*(), 高培1,3,4,*()   

  1. 1. 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，北京 100191
    2. 宁波市鄞州区疾病预防控制中心，浙江宁波 315101
    3. 重大疾病流行病学教育部重点实验室(北京大学)，北京 100191
    4. 北京大学临床研究所真实世界证据评价中心，北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:2026-02-24 出版日期:2026-06-18 发布日期:2026-04-29
  • 通讯作者: 唐迅, 高培
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技创新2030四大慢病重大专项(2024ZD0527406); 国家自然科学基金(82373662); 北京市自然科学基金(IS24047)

Application of biological age for cardiovascular risk prediction in a community-based Chinese cohort

Mengxi LU1, Binghan WANG1, Jiali KANG1, Qiuping LIU1, Yifan ZHOU1, Yexiang SUN2, Peng SHEN2, Hongbo LIN2, Xun TANG1,3,4,*(), Pei GAO1,3,4,*()   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China
    2. Yinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315101, Zhejiang, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Disease (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China
    4. Center for Real-world Evidence Evaluation, Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2026-02-24 Online:2026-06-18 Published:2026-04-29
  • Contact: Xun TANG, Pei GAO
  • Supported by:
    the Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project(2024ZD0527406); the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82373662); the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(IS24047)

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摘要：

目的: 在大样本社区人群队列中独立验证Light BioAge模型计算的简易生物学年龄预测全因死亡的区分度，并探索其与时序年龄的差值和心血管病发病及死亡结局事件的关联，以及生物学年龄对心血管病风险预测的实际应用价值。方法: 研究对象为中国鄞州电子健康档案研究(CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou，CHERRY)队列中40~79岁基线无心血管病史的人群，利用C统计量(Harrell’s concordance index，C-index) 评估仅通过空腹血糖、血清肌酐和超敏C反应蛋白三个临床常用指标构建的Light BioAge模型在全人群及不同性别亚组中预测全因死亡的外部验证区分度，采用Cox比例风险模型分析年龄差值与首次发生的心血管病发病和心血管病死亡复合终点的关联，调整时序年龄、性别、教育水平、居住地、吸烟状态、体重指数、收缩压、总胆固醇及高密度脂蛋白胆固醇等影响因素后计算风险比(hazard ratio，HR)及其95%置信区间(confidence interval，CI)。采用限制性立方样条回归方法进一步分析年龄差值与心血管病结局事件的潜在非线性关联。在2019年世界卫生组织(World Health Organization，WHO)开发的心血管病风险预测简易模型中采用生物学年龄替换时序年龄，评估对10年心血管病风险预测区分度和校准度的影响。结果: 共纳入226 406名研究对象，人群的基线平均年龄为55.0岁，53.2%为女性。在中位7.39年(累计1 562 141人年)的随访期间，共有11 703人(7.49/1 000人年)发生死亡，9 815人(6.30/1 000人年)发生心血管病发病和死亡复合结局事件。Light BioAge模型计算的生物学年龄及年龄差值的中位数分别为49.31和-5.19，提示其整体上低于时序年龄；虽然Light BioAge模型在全人群中预测全因死亡的区分度较好(C统计量：0.742，95%CI：0.738~0.746)，但在男性中的区分度低于女性[C统计量分别为0.722(95%CI：0.714~0.730)和0.755(95%CI：0.749~0.761)]。调整其他影响因素后，心血管病结局事件的风险呈现随年龄差值增大而增高的趋势(Ptrend < 0.001)；年龄差值处于上四分位数组与下四分位数组相比，男性心血管病结局事件的风险增加了21%(HR=1.21，95%CI：1.12~1.30)，女性增加了27%(HR=1.27，95%CI：1.17~1.38)。限制性立方样条回归的结果进一步显示，总人群的心血管病结局事件的风险随年龄差值的增加而升高，且男性、女性亚组中并未发现明显的阈值效应(非线性关联P>0.05)。在WHO模型中采用生物学年龄替换时序年龄后，预测心血管病风险的区分度无改善，但校准度有明显提升，尤其是在女性人群中从时序年龄模型整体风险高估的20.5%[预测/观察比(expected/observed ratio，EOR)=1.205，95%CI：1.167~1.246]改善为生物学年龄替换后的整体风险仅略微低估2.1%(EOR=0.979，95%CI：0.948~1.012)。结论: Light BioAge模型构建的简易生物学年龄在大样本社区人群中预测全因死亡的区分度较好，生物学年龄和时序年龄的差值增大将增加心血管病结局事件的风险，在WHO心血管病风险预测模型中用生物学年龄替换时序年龄后，模型的校准度明显改善，特别是在女性人群。

关键词: 生物学年龄, 心血管病, 队列研究, 风险评估, 性别差异

Abstract:

Objective: To independently evaluate the discrimination of the light version of biological age (Light BioAge) model for predicting all-cause mortality, to explore the association of the difference on Light BioAge and chronological age (AgeDiff) with the composite outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to assess the performance of CVD risk prediction using the Light BioAge instead of chronological age in a large Chinese population-based cohort. Methods: Participants aged 40-79 years without a history of CVD at baseline were drawn from the CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. Harrell' s concordance index (C-index) was employed to assess the discrimination of Light BioAge in predicting all-cause mortality across the overall population and sex-specific subgroups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between AgeDiff and the composite outcome of CVD onset and death, adjusting for chronological age, sex, education, region, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression was used to further analyze the potential nonlinear association between AgeDiff and CVD outcomes. Light BioAge was introduced to replace chronological age in the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory CVD risk model to evaluate the discrimination and calibration in predicting 10-year CVD risk. Results: A total of 226 406 adults were included, with a mean age of 55.0 years at baseline, 53.2% of whom were women. During a median follow-up of 7.39 years (cumulative 1 562 141 person-years), 11 703 deaths (7.49 per 1 000 person-years) and 9 815 CVD events (6.30 per 1 000 person-years) occurred. The median Light BioAge and AgeDiff were 49.31 and -5.19 years, respectively, suggesting an underestimation of chronological age. Although the Light BioAge model demonstrated good discrimination for predicting all-cause mortality in the overall population (C-index: 0.742, 95% CI: 0.738-0.746), discrimination was lower in men (0.722, 95%CI: 0.714-0.730) than in women (0.755, 95%CI: 0.749-0.761). After adjusting for confounders, the risk of CVD events showed an elevated trend with increasing AgeDiff (Ptrend < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile of AgeDiff, the risk of CVD events in the highest quartile increased by 21% in men (HR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.12-1.30) and 27% in women (HR=1.27, 95%CI: 1.17-1.38). RCS regression further indicated that in the overall population, the risk of CVD events increased with AgeDiff. Besides, no significant thre-shold effect was observed in sex-specific subgroups (P for non-linearity >0.05). Replacing chronological age with the Light BioAge in the WHO model did not improve discrimination; however, it significantly enhanced calibration. Calibration improvement was especially evident in women: while chronological age overestimated risk by 20.5% [expected/observed ratio (EOR)=1.205, 95%CI: 1.167-1.246), the Light BioAge reduced this to a marginal 2.1% underestimation (EOR=0.979, 95%CI: 0.948-1.012). Conclusion: The discrimination of the Light BioAge in predicting all-cause mortality seems good, and a wider AgeDiff indicates higher cardiovascular risk in this large population-based Chinese cohort. Replacing chronological age with biological age in the WHO non-laboratory model significantly improved calibration for women.

Key words: Biological age, Cardiovascular disease, Cohort study, Risk assessment, Sex disparity

中图分类号: 

  • R181.2

表1

研究对象的基线特征"

Characteristics Total (n=226 406) Men (n=105 848) Women (n=120 558) P value
Age/years, $\bar x \pm s$ 55.0±9.3 55.5±9.9 54.5±9.9 < 0.001
Region (urban), n(%) 154 444 (68.2) 73 345 (69.3) 81 099 (67.3) < 0.001
Education (senior high school or higher), n(%) 34 238 (15.1) 19 442 (18.4) 14 796 (12.3) < 0.001
Smoker, n(%) 41 861 (18.5) 40 238 (38.0) 1 623 (1.3) < 0.001
Hypertension, n(%) 74 319 (32.8) 35 014 (33.1) 39 305 (32.6) 0.016
Diabetes, n(%) 19 701 (8.7) 9 226 (8.7) 10 475 (8.7) 0.823
SBP/mmHg, $\bar x \pm s$ 131.2±16.3 131.9±15.9 130.6±16.7 < 0.001
DBP/mmHg, $\bar x \pm s$ 81.6±9.6 82.5±9.5 80.8±9.6 < 0.001
BMI/(kg/m2), $\bar x \pm s$ 23.3±2.8 23.3±2.7 23.2±2.9 < 0.001
TG/(mg/dL), M (IQR) 145.5
(111.5, 179.1)		 141.6
(106.4, 172.8)		 151.2
(116.4, 185.7)		 < 0.001
TC/(mg/dL), $\bar x \pm s$ 190.2±37.8 185.6±37.3 194.3±37.7 0.030
HDL-C/(mg/dL), $\bar x \pm s$ 50.3±12.9 48.5±13.1 52.0±12.4 < 0.001
LDL-C/(mg/dL), $\bar x \pm s$ 109.7±31.0 111.5±31.3 107.2±30.6 < 0.001
GLU/(mmol/L), M (IQR) 5.3 (4.9, 5.9) 5.4 (5.0, 6.0) 5.3 (4.9, 5.8) < 0.001
Creatinine/(mg/dL), $\bar x \pm s$ 0.7±0.2 0.8±0.2 0.7±0.2 < 0.001
hs-CRP/(mg/dL), M (IQR) 0.6 (0.3, 1.7) 0.7 (0.3, 1.8) 0.6 (0.2, 1.7) < 0.001
Light BioAge, M (IQR) 49.3
(40.3, 58.9)		 50.9
(41.7, 60.6)		 47.9
(39.0, 57.4)		 < 0.001
AgeDiff, $\bar x \pm s$ -5.1±8.3 -4.1±8.4 -6.0±8.3 < 0.001

图1

研究人群的心血管病发病和死亡复合结局与简易生物学年龄的分布情况"

图2

不同性别人群生物学年龄差值与心血管病结局事件的关联"

图3

按性别分组的生物学年龄差值与心血管病结局事件的非线性关联"

图4

基于时序年龄与生物学年龄的WHO心血管病风险预测模型校准图"

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ISSN 1671-167X
CN 11-4691/R
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