北京大学学报(医学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (4): 647-652. doi: 10.19723/j.issn.1671-167X.2021.04.004
XIAO Ruo-tao,LIU Cheng,XU Chu-xiao,HE Wei,MA Lu-lin(
)
摘要:
目的: 探讨术前血小板参数对局部进展期肾癌预后的预测价值,为此类患者的危险分层提供参考。方法: 选择北京大学第三医院2015年1月—2017年12月局部进展期肾癌患者进行回顾性分析,依据随访过程中肿瘤是否复发或转移分成进展组和无进展组,比较两组术前血小板参数和临床资料的差异。通过受试者特征工作曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve, ROC)确定血小板参数的最佳临界值,Kaplan-Meier生存曲线分析不同血小板参数与疾病无进展生存时间(progression-free survival, PFS)的关系。通过Cox比例风险模型进行多因素分析确定PFS的独立危险因素。采用时间依赖ROC、净重新分类指数(net reclassification index, NRI)和综合判别改善指数(integrated discrimination improvement, IDI)评估纳入血小板参数后对SSIGN模型改良情况。结果: 共有215例患者入选本研究,其中192例(89.3%)患者获得随访,中位随访时间为36个月。64例(29.8%)患者随访过程中出现疾病进展,中位PFS为46个月。进展组患者的血小板数量(platelet count, PLT)相较无进展组高[(250.72±88.59)×109/L vs. (227.27±66.94)×109/L, P=0.042],血小板分布宽度(platelet distribution width, PDW)相较无进展组低[(12.01±2.27)% vs. (13.31±2.74)%, P=0.001]。将285×109/L及12.65%作为PLT及PDW的最佳临界值,PLT≤285×109/L组患者中位PFS显著长于PLT>285×109/L组(53个月vs. 41个月,P=0.033);PDW>12.65%组患者中位PFS也显著长于PDW≤12.65%组(56个月vs. 41个月,P<0.001)。多因素分析显示术前PDW(HR=0.735, P<0.001)、细胞核分级Ⅲ~Ⅳ级(HR=2.425, P=0.001)、合并肉瘤样分化(HR=3.101, P=0.008)为PFS的独立危险因素。术前PDW联合SSIGN预后评分模型曲线下面积大于原有SSIGN模型[0.748 (95%CI:0.662~0.833) vs. 0.678 (95%CI: 0.583~0.773), P=0.193],NRI为0.262(P=0.04),IDI为 0.085(P=0.01),表明PDW纳入SSIGN模型后其预测能力提高。结论: 术前高PLT和低PDW与局部进展期肾癌不良预后相关,其中PDW是患者预后的独立危险因素,因此,术前PDW有助于对局部进展期肾癌进行危险分层。
中图分类号:
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